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You are at:Home»THE GRAY RHINO»CITIC Simplified Chinese Characters Edition
The Gray Rhino China edition, published by Citic

CITIC Simplified Chinese Characters Edition

灰犀牛

The Gray Rhino China edition, published by Citic灰犀牛:如何应对大概率危机。米歇尔·渥克(Michele Wucker)

CITIC, 2017年2月

这本书有在 Amazon, JD, Dangdang, and T mall 销售

类似以黑天鹅比喻小概率而又影响巨大的事件,本书以灰犀牛比喻大概率且影响巨大的潜在危机。相对于黑天鹅事件的难以预见性和偶发性,灰犀牛事件不是随机突发事件,而是在一系列警示信号和迹象之后出现的大概率事件。例如:2008年美国房地产泡沫集中爆发以及在此之前的诸多泡沫破裂;飓风卡特里娜和桑迪以及其他自然灾害后的毁灭性余波;颠覆了传统媒体的现实数码技术;大桥坍塌和摇摇欲坠的城市基础设施;苏联的迅速衰败和中东地区的混乱,在事前均出现过明显的迹象。

为什么领导者们和决策者们不能在局面失去控制之前解除危机?人们应该如何辨识和有效应对那些明显的、高概率的危机事件?本书以科技、经济、自然、社会等多方面的实例进行分析,为我们提供了那些迫在眉睫的、概率高、影响大的危机的预测、防备、应对及善后的具体方法,以便为人们在组织管理、公司管理和国家管理过程提供决策参考。

推荐经理人、投资者、决策者、政府领导以及希望躲避灰犀牛式危机事件的人士阅读。

 

 

 

作者简介

米歇尔·渥克(Michele Wucker) ,全球思想袖,2007年古根海姆学者奖获得者,2009年
世界经济论坛“青年领袖”,她身兼数职,担任总部在纽约的国际政策研究所所长、芝加哥议会全球事务研究中心副主任、《国际金融评论》拉美办公室主任。曾多次给《纽约时报》《华盛顿邮报》《国际政策》等媒体撰写文章。

名人推荐

为什么一些大概率、大影响的事件,人们常常却无视它们,而导致严重后果?《灰犀牛》通过大量生动有趣的宏观和微观的案例,分析人的认知模式和应对模式,展示了行为经济学中的一些新洞见,为我们识别危机和应对危机提供了一个新视角。——清华大学经管学院院长 钱颖

突发的意外事件会困扰我们,但真正令人沮丧的是,有些我们完全知道是危险的问题,因为惰性、拖延、体制性忽略、有意无意地回避,慢慢积累,终于变成无法收拾的危机。《灰犀牛》启示我们,该来的总是会来,除非一开始你就建立预防的机制和严格的习惯。——中国商业文明研究中心、秦朔朋友圈发起人 秦朔

灰犀牛是一种大概率危机,在社会的各个领域不断上演。金融领域的危机事件,与其说是黑天鹅,其实更像是灰犀牛,在爆发前已有迹象显现,但却被忽视。如何避免类似事件再次发生,《灰犀牛》对企业家、管理者、政策制定者而言尤为重要。——大成基金首席经济学家、中国人民银行金融研究所原所长姚余栋

“黑天鹅”挑战我们的想象力和预测力,“灰犀牛”则挑战我们的应变力和行动力。在这快速变化的时代,一大群显而易见的灰犀牛迈着沉重的脚步离我们越来越近。如何应对和避险,我们必须从《灰犀牛》艺术中吸取智慧。
——中国互联网金融创新研究院院长、中央财经大学金融法研究所所长、互联网金融千人会俱乐部创始人 黄震

《灰犀牛》这本书对于危机管理和政策制定的重新定位能起到至关重要的作用,因此对于企业和国家来说都是非常重要的一本书。——欧亚集团主席,伊恩·布雷默
如果说黑天鹅理论让人感到绝望的话,那么灰犀牛理论能让我们明白:我们有能力解决危机。在这部原创性著作中,米歇尔·渥克让我认识到:在危机到来时,保持头脑清醒,做正确的应对决策是十分重要的。——《大开眼界》作者, 诺瑞娜·赫兹

比黑天鹅事件还重要的是灰犀牛事件:我们没能阻止的概率高、影响大的危机事件。这本书给我们提供了很多有用的建议,告诉我们如何及时采取行动,避免悲剧发生。——联合利华CEO 保罗·波尔曼

政治家、CEO以及其他的领导者在面对迫在眉睫而且是可以预见的危机面前经常故意视而不见。在这部极具原创性和启发性的著作里,米歇尔·渥克深入分析了他们这样做的原因,并且告诉我们怎样才能改变这种局面。书中大量引用了来自政治、经济和社会的真实事例,应该成为当权者的必读书籍。——普利策奖得主 利雅卡特·艾哈迈德

米歇尔•渥克没有说错。很多时候,我们都能看到危机正向我们走来:气候变化、恐怖主义、经济危机。但是我们什么都没做。这部宝贵的著作能告诉我们为什么会这样。这部作品是所有组织机构领导者的必读之作,无论是政府机构还是私立机构,因为我们正在迎接一个充满挑战的时代。”   ——新加坡国立大学李光耀公共政策学院院长  马凯硕

世界目前亟须转变危机管理范式。这部著作能很好地解决我们自己造成的、一点一点忽视的或是决定彻底无视的常见危机。当你看到你犀牛来到你面前的时候,就已经太晚了。灾难和黑天鹅已经进入我们的常用词汇序列。不久,灰犀牛也会成我们的常用词汇之一。——沃顿商学院风控中心主任 伊万·米歇尔–凯尔让

为什么我们会需要一本书来告诉自己去注意和防范那些明显的、高概率的危机事件?因为我们会毅然决然地避谈和否认我们面前的危机事件。《灰犀牛》这本书告诉我们为什么会这样,同时给我们提供了详细具体办法,去应对可能会改变世界的危机事件。——新美国基金会主席  安妮–玛丽·斯劳特

米歇尔·渥克从一个全新的角度解读了当下的社会危机。这些危机本就迫在眉睫、间不容息, 但不幸的是, 我们竟然对其视而不见。作为一个政治家, 如果拱默尸禄,或者只是静待下一次“ 尽如所期冶的事件, 而不能积极解决这些早就已经摆在我们面前的危机, 那么他就不能算是一个尽职尽责的政治家。———哈佛大学商学院教授、公共领导中心副主任  马克斯·巴泽曼

正如米歇尔·渥克警告过的那样: 问题的关键不是发生危机的可能性有多大, 而是发生危机的时间节点离我们有多近。这部作品非常契合当下的时代特性。在这个时代里, 我们面临着各种各样的、明显的生存危机。这本书提醒我们, 否认问题的存在是一种讳疾忌医的行为, 百害而无一利。同时, 书中给我们提供了消除危机的具体方法:危机与机遇要么互为因果, 要么是一枚硬币的两面。所以,我们必须找到危机中潜藏的机遇, 充分利用, 才可能做到“绝地反击冶。———《印度星球》作者  米拉·坎达

米歇尔·渥克用通俗易懂的语言把我们刻意无视的一切, 真实地呈现在我们面前, 并且教会我们如何从危机事件中寻找机遇。这本书的最大好处是: 从个人生活领域到全球经济领域, 重新审视思考我们的生活。———《连接力地图》和《如何运营世界》作者  帕拉格·科哈纳

《灰犀牛》这本书为我们指出了组织机构、公司和国家民族的致命弱点, 并且教会我们克服这些弱点的方法: 企业领导和国家政策的决策者常常会因为画地为牢、抱残守缺而犯下错误, 所以只有广开言路、从谏如流, 才能避免一错再错。书中的见解拔新领异、字字珠玑, 必将成为全球政策决策者和思想领袖的必读之作。———英泰克咨询公司CEO、《团队》作者  威廉·斋藤

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