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You are at:Home»THE GRAY RHINO»International Editions»Commonwealth Publications Chinese Traditional Characters Edition

Commonwealth Publications Chinese Traditional Characters Edition

灰犀牛

THE GRAY RHINO Taiwan edition

灰犀牛:如何應對大概率危機。米歇爾·渥克(Michele Wucker)

Commonwealth Publications, 2017年2月

這本書有在 Eliste Book Chain, Bookzone and Book 銷售

類似以黑天鵝比喻小概率而又影響巨大的事件,本書以灰犀牛比喻大概率且影響巨大的潛在危機。相對於黑天鵝事件的難以預見性和偶發性,灰犀牛事件不是隨機突發事件,而是在一系列警示信號和跡象之後出現的大概率事件。例如:2008年美國房地產泡沫集中爆發以及在此之前的諸多泡沫破裂;颶風卡特里娜和桑迪以及其他自然災害後的毀滅性餘波;顛覆了傳統媒體的現實數碼技術;大橋坍塌和搖搖欲墜的城市基礎設施;蘇聯的迅速衰敗和中東地區的混亂,在事前均出現過明顯的跡象。

為什麼領導者們和決策者們不能在局面失去控制之前解除危機?人們應該如何辨識和有效應對那些明顯的、高概率的危機事件?本書以科技、經濟、自然、社會等多方面的實例進行分析,為我們提供了那些迫在眉睫的、概率高、影響大的危機的預測、防備、應對及善後的具體方法,以便為人們在組織管理、公司管理和國家管理過程提供決策參考。

推薦經理人、投資者、決策者、政府領導以及希望躲避灰犀牛式危機事件的人士閱讀。

作者簡介

米歇爾·渥克(Michele Wucker) ,全球思想領袖,2007年古根海姆學者獎獲得者,2009年世界經濟論壇“青年領袖”,她身兼數職,擔任總部在紐約的國際政策研究所所長、芝加哥議會全球事務研究中心副主任、《國際金融評論》拉美辦公室主任。曾多次給《紐約時報》《華盛頓郵報》《國際政策》等媒體撰寫文章。

名人推薦

為什麼一些大概率、大影響的事件,人們常常卻無視它們,而導致嚴重後果? 《灰犀牛》通過大量生動有趣的宏觀和微觀的案例,分析人的認知模式和應對模式,展示了行為經濟學中的一些新洞見,為我們識別危機和應對危機提供了一個新視角。
——清華大學經管學院院長 錢穎一
突發的意外事件會困擾我們,但真正令人沮喪的是,有些我們完全知道是危險的問題,因為惰性、拖延、體制性忽略、有意無意地迴避,慢慢積累,終於變成無法收拾的危機。 《灰犀牛》啟示我們,該來的總是會來,除非一開始你就建立預防的機制和嚴格的習慣。
——中國商業文明研究中心、秦朔朋友圈發起人 秦朔
灰犀牛是一種大概率危機,在社會的各個領域不斷上演。金融領域的危機事件,與其說是黑天鵝,其實更像是灰犀牛,在爆發前已有跡象顯現,但卻被忽視。如何避免類似事件再次發生,《灰犀牛》對企業家、管理者、政策制定者而言尤為重要。
——大成基金首席經濟學家、中國人民銀行金融研究所原所長
姚餘“

黑天鵝”挑戰我們的想像力和預測力,“灰犀牛”則挑戰我們的應變力和行動力。在這快速變化的時代,一大群顯而易見的灰犀牛邁著沉重的腳步離我們越來越近。如何應對和避險,我們必須從《灰犀牛》藝術中吸取智慧。
——中國互聯網金融創新研究院院長、中央財經大學金融法研究所所長、互聯網金融千人會俱樂部創始人 黃震
《灰犀牛》這本書對於危機管理和政策制定的重新定位能起到至關重要的作用,因此對於企業和國家來說都是非常重要的一本書。
——歐亞集團主席,伊恩·布雷默
如果說黑天鵝理論讓人感到絕望的話,那麼灰犀牛理論能讓我們明白:我們有能力解決危機。在這部原創性著作中,米歇爾·渥克讓我認識到:在危機到來時,保持頭腦清醒,做正確的應對決策是十分重要的。
——《大開眼界》作者, 諾瑞娜·赫茲
比黑天鵝事件還重要的是灰犀牛事件:我們沒能阻止的概率高、影響大的危機事件。這本書給我們提供了很多有用的建議,告訴我們如何及時採取行動,避免悲劇發生。
——聯合利華CEO 保羅·波爾曼
政治家、CEO以及其他的領導者在面對迫在眉睫而且是可以預見的危機面前經常故意視而不見。在這部極具原創性和啟發性的著作裡,米歇爾·渥克深入分析了他們這樣做的原因,並且告訴我們怎樣才能改變這種局面。書中大量引用了來自政治、經濟和社會的真實事例,應該成為當權者的必讀書籍。
——普利策獎得主 利雅卡特·艾哈邁德

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