Author: Michele Wucker

How often do you or those around you recognize that a problem exists but come up with any number of excuses to avoid fixing it? This sort of kicking the can down the road is a hallmark of the second stage of the evolution of an obvious, high-probability gray rhino crisis: muddling. (Read this recent article for more on the five stages, which are detailed in depth in my 2016 book, THE GRAY RHINO: How to Recognize and Act on the Obvious Dangers We Ignore.) Inequality is a prime example of muddling. Yes, people are aware of the problem. The French economist Thomas Piketty’s 2013…

Will the COVID-19 pandemic make it easier or harder to combat climate change? Many articles have appeared in recent weeks both comparing the coronavirus response to how people have dealt with climate change –two giant, obvious “gray rhino” crises– and tying the coronavirus reaction to the need for a more aggressive climate action plan. I was happy to share my thoughts on the links between climate change and the novel coronavirus crisis with Amy Harder of Axios, Laura Paddison of the Huffington Post, and Beth Gardiner of Yale e360 and Granta But these questions are lingering. So I want to address them in more detail here. …

Gayatri Sarkar, founder and host of She-VC, a storytelling platform for women VC, investors and LP, interviewed eminent policy expert Michele Wucker March 27, 2020 in a live webinar. Michele Wucker coined the term “gray rhino” to draw attention to the obvious risks that are neglected despite – indeed, often because of- their size and likelihood. Watch on YouTube or below. QUESTIONS: 1. Is the Coronavirus pandemic a Black Swan or gray rhino? What is a “meta” gray rhino? 2. In this crisis we realized that most of our current policy leaders are clueless. What should they do in terms…

If the nobody-could-have-seen-it-coming black swan metaphor was the narrative of the 2008 market meltdown, the highly probable, obvious “gray rhino” metaphor tells the story of the crisis we are in today. Amid the double calamities of the COVID-19 pandemic and market meltdown, both of which followed repeated public warnings that went ignored, the gray rhino has struck a chord and generated a flood of headlines around the world. Crisis Response Journal recently called the gray rhino “A metaphor for our times.” The UK financial magazine, New Model Advisor, made the gray rhino the cover story of its new issue, relegating the black swan…

The Economists’ The World Ahead podcast interviewed Michele Wucker in its March 30, 2020 episode, entitled “Covid-19 and the Perils of Prediction,” asking her, “Is the covid-19 pandemic a grey rhino or a black swan?” Listen HERE or on Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google | TuneIn

New Model Adviser, a publication of CityWire in the United Kingdom, featured gray rhino theory on the cover of its March 2020 issue, entitled “The Signs Were There.” The issue features an interview with Gray Rhino & Company CEO Michele Wucker. “COVID-19 was not unexpected. In fact, it is an example of a Gray Rhino event. The economist who coined the term tells editor WILLIAM ROBINS why we should have seen the pandemic charging at us from a mile away.” Read the full article HERE.

It was a meeting of the minds: FAIR (Factor Analysis of Information Risk) model creator Jack Jones, who’s dedicated his career advocating for quantitative, critical thinking against the easy-button practices of conventional cyber risk management—and Michele Wucker, author of The Gray Rhino: How to Recognize and Act on the Obvious Dangers We Ignore, a highly acclaimed book that’s getting renewed buzz as a result of the “unforeseen” coronavirus crisis that was all along like a snorting gray rhino about to charge. Watch this video for a fascinating conversation that will put you on the lookout for gray rhinos in your risk…

In this podcast, Sami J. Karam speaks to best-selling author Michele Wucker about her 2016 book The Gray Rhino and how its method and lessons apply to the coronavirus pandemic. Gray Rhino threats are highly probable, highly impactful but often neglected until it is too late or until the cost of dealing with them becomes very high. Listen on SOUNDCLOUD or visit Populyst. Topics include: 0:00 Introduction of Michele Wucker 1:05 When will we be able to travel to Asia or Europe again? 3:10 Explaining the concept and examples of Gray Rhino events 9:00 Various reactions to the spread of…

Why are people so prone to denying instead of dealing with the obvious problems in front of us, whether coronavirus or climate change or financial fragilities? Last week I wrote about the five stages of a gray rhino crisis, the first one being denial. This week I want to dive a lot deeper into denial: Why do we do it? Why are some people more prone to it than others? And most important, how do we snap ourselves and others out of denial as soon as possible? Denial is a powerful force, often rooted in primal emotions. It’s a protective quirk…

We’ve been seeing a lot of analysis of where the coronavirus could take us, along with some analysis of what different countries are doing to combat it. Response analysis is important because it has a huge impact on the eventual outcome. It’s worth taking more time to think about how each of us is responding along with our organizations and communities, whether those responses are appropriate and adequate, and if not how we can change them for the better. In my book, THE GRAY RHINO, I developed a five-stage framework for analyzing responses to obvious “gray rhino” risks that are more likely…